Assessing the spatial-temporal risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection for healthcare-workers in the hospital using behavioural indices from routine data (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasised the need to rapidly assess infection risks for healthcare workers within the hospital environment. Using data from the first year of the pandemic, we investigated whether an individuals COVID-19 test result was associated with behavioural markers derived from routinely collected hospital data two weeks prior to a test. The temporal and spatial context of behaviours were important, with the highest risks of infection during the first wave, for staff in contact with a greater number of patients and those with greater levels of activity on floors handling the majority of COVID-19 patients. Infection risks were higher for BAME staff and individuals working more shifts. Night shifts presented higher risks of infection between waves of COVID-19 patients. Our results demonstrate the epidemiological relevance of deriving markers of staff behaviour from electronic records, which extend beyond COVID-19 with applications for other communicable diseases and in supporting pandemic preparedness.

Comparison Of New and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant Transmissibility through Active Contact Testing. A comparative cross-sectional household seroprevalence study. (preprint)

Historically SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rates (SAR) have been based on PCR positivity on screening symptomatic contacts, this misses transmission events and identifies only symptomatic contacts who are PCR positive at the time of sampling. We used serology to detect the relative transmissibility of Alpha Variant of Concern (VOC) to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 to calculate household secondary attack rates. We identified index patients diagnosed with Alpha and non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 across two London Hospitals between November 2020 and January 2021 during a prolonged and well adhered national lockdown. We completed a household seroprevalence survey and found that 61.8% of non-VOC exposed household contacts were seropositive compared to 82.1% of Alpha exposed household contacts. The odds of infection doubled with exposure to an index diagnosed with Alpha. There was evidence of transmission events in almost all households. Our data strongly support that estimates of SAR should include serological data to improve accuracy and understanding.

Using routinely collected hospital data to investigate healthcare worker mobility and patient contacts within a UK hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

Movement and contacts are central to the transmission of infectious diseases and, within the hospital setting, healthcare worker (HCW) mobility and their contact with patients play an important role in the spread of nosocomial disease. Yet data relating to HCW behaviours associated with mobility and contacts in the healthcare environment are often limited. This paper proposes a framework for integrating several electronic data sources routinely-collected by modern hospitals, to enable the measurement of HCW behaviours relevant to the transmission of infections. Using data from a London teaching hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic, we demonstrate how, at an aggregate level, electronic medical records (EMRs) and door access logs can be used to establish changes in HCW mobility and patient contacts. In addition, to show the utility of these data sources in supporting infection prevention and control (IPC), we investigate changes in the indirect connectivity of patients (resulting from shared contacts with HCWs) and spatial connectivity of floors (owing to the movements of HCWs). Average daily rates of patient contacts are computed and found to be higher throughout the pandemic compared to that pre-pandemic, while the average daily rates of HCW mobility remained stable until the second wave, where they surpassed pre-pandemic levels. The response of HCW behaviour to the pandemic was not equal between floors, whereby the highest increases in patient contacts and mobility were on floors handling the majority of COVID-19 patients. The first wave of COVID-19 patients resulted in changes to the flow of HCWs between floors, but the interconnectivity between COVID-19 and non COVID-19 wards was evident throughout the pandemic. Daily rates of indirect contact between patients provided evidence for reactive staff cohorting, whereby indirect contact rates between COVID-19 positive and negative patients were lowest during peaks in COVID-19 hospital admissions. We propose that IPC practitioners use these routinely collected data on HCW behaviour to support infection control activities and to help better protect hospital staff and patients from nosocomial outbreaks of communicable diseases.

Reduced antibody cross-reactivity following infection with B.1.1.7 than with parental SARS-CoV-2 strains (preprint)

We examined the immunogenicity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant B.1.1.7 that arose in the United Kingdom and spread globally. Antibodies elicited by B.1.1.7 infection exhibited significantly reduced recognition and neutralisation of parental strains or of the South Africa B.1.351 variant, than of the infecting variant. The drop in cross-reactivity was more pronounced following B.1.1.7 than parental strain infection, indicating asymmetric heterotypic immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Favourable antibody responses to human coronaviruses in children and adolescents with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (preprint)

Differences in humoral immunity to coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), between children and adults remain unexplained and the impact of underlying immune dysfunction or suppression unknown. Here, we examined the antibody immune competence of children and adolescents with prevalent inflammatory rheumatic diseases, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) and juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE), against the seasonal human coronavirus (HCoV)-OC43 that frequently infects this age group. Despite immune dysfunction and immunosuppressive treatment, JIA, JDM and JSLE patients mounted comparable or stronger responses than healthier peers, dominated by IgG antibodies to HCoV-OC43 spike, and harboured IgG antibodies that cross-reacted with SARS-CoV-2 spike. In contrast, responses to HCoV-OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 nucleoproteins exhibited delayed age-dependent class-switching and were not elevated in JIA, JDM and JSLE patients, arguing against increased exposure. Consequently, autoimmune rheumatic diseases and their treatment were associated with a favourable ratio of spike to nucleoprotein antibodies.

Defining Potential Therapeutic Targets in COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Single Centre Cohort (preprint)

Background: For a targeted therapeutic strategy to show outcome benefit, there needs to be a strong biological and pathogenic rationale to underpin and direct personalised treatments. Relevant biological disease features and biomarkers identify patients for the correct therapeutic, delivered at an appropriate time, dose and duration for maximal efficacy. We evaluated whether serum levels of a wide range of proposed therapeutic targets in COVID-19 discriminated between patients with mild and severe disease or death.Methods: A search of clinicaltrials.gov identified immunological drug targets in COVID-19. We subsequently conducted an observational study investigating the association of serum biomarkers relating to putative therapeutic biomarkers with illness severity and outcome.Results: A search of clinicaltrials.gov identified 477 randomized trials assessing immunomodulatory therapies, including 168 different therapies against 83 different pathways. We measured levels of ten cytokines/signalling proteins including those related to the most common therapeutic targets (GM-CSF, IFN-α2a, IFN-β, IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-1ra, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, TNF-α), immunoglobulin G ( IgG) antibodies directed against either the COVID-19 spike protein (S1) or nucleocapsid protein (N), and neutralization titres of antibodies within the first 5 days of hospital admission in 86 patients, 44 (51%) with mild disease and 42 (49%) with severe disease. Six of the ten cytokine/signalling protein markers measured (IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, interferon- a, interferon- b, IL -1ra ) discriminated between patients with mild and severe disease, although most were similar or only modestly raised above that seen in healthy volunteers. A similar proportion of patients with mild or severe disease had detectable S1 or N IgG antibodies with equivalent levels between groups. Neutralization titres were higher among patients with severe disease.Interpretation: Some therapeutic and prognostic biomarkers may be potentially useful in identifying patients who may benefit from specific immunomodulatory therapies in COVID-19 disease, particularly interleukin-6. It is however noteworthy that absolute values of a number of identified biomarkers were either appropriately elevated or within the normal range. This implies that these immunomodulatory treatments may be of limited benefit.Funding: National Institute for Health Research UCLH Biomedical Research Centre (BRC756/HI/MS/101440) and the UCL Coronavirus Response Fund.Declaration of Interests: MeS reports grants and advisory board fees from NewB, grants from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Critical Pressure, Apollo Therapeutics, advisory board and speaker fees (paid to his institution) from Amormed, Biotest, GE, Baxter, Roche, and Bayer, and honorarium for chairing a data monitoring and safety committee from Shionogi. All other authors have nothing to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: Ethical approval was received from the London-Westminster Research Ethics Committee, the Health Research Authority and Health and Care Research Wales (HCRW) on 2nd July 2020 (REC reference 20/HRA/2505, IRAS ID 284088). The SAFER study protocol was approved by the NHS Health Research Authority (ref 20/SC/0147) on 26 March 2020. Ethical oversight was provided by the South- Central Berkshire Research Ethics Committee.

Estimating the effectiveness of routine asymptomatic PCR testing at different frequencies for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections (preprint)

BackgroundRoutine asymptomatic testing using RT-PCR of people who interact with vulnerable populations, such as medical staff in hospitals or care workers in care homes, has been employed to help prevent outbreaks among vulnerable populations. Although the peak sensitivity of RT-PCR can be high, the probability of detecting an infection will vary throughout the course of an infection. The effectiveness of routine asymptomatic testing will therefore depend on testing frequency and how PCR detection varies over time. MethodsWe fitted a Bayesian statistical model to a dataset of twice weekly PCR tests of UK healthcare workers performed by self-administered nasopharyngeal swab, regardless of symptoms. We jointly estimated times of infection and the probability of a positive PCR test over time following infection, we then compared asymptomatic testing strategies by calculating the probability that a symptomatic infection is detected before symptom onset and the probability that an asymptomatic infection is detected within 7 days of infection. FindingsWe estimated that the probability that the PCR test detected infection peaked at 77% (54 - 88%) 4 days after infection, decreasing to 50% (38 - 65%) by 10 days after infection. Our results suggest a substantially higher probability of detecting infections 1-3 days after infection than previously published estimates. We estimated that testing every other day would detect 57% (33-76%) of symptomatic cases prior to onset and 94% (75-99%) of asymptomatic cases within 7 days if test results were returned within a day. InterpretationOur results suggest that routine asymptomatic testing can enable detection of a high proportion of infected individuals early in their infection, provided that the testing is frequent and the time from testing to notification of results is sufficiently fast. FundingWellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit, Medical Research Council (UKRI)

Clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in long-term care facilities for people with epilepsy: observational study (preprint)

Objectives: COVID-19 is spreading in long-term care facilities with devastating outcomes worldwide, especially for people with chronic health conditions. There is a pressing need to adopt effective measures prevention and containment of in such settings. Design: Retrospective cohort study assessing the effect of enhanced surveillance and early preventative strategies and comparing outcomes for people with severe epilepsy and other comorbidities Setting: Three long-term care facilities: Chalfont Centre for Epilepsy (CCE), St. Elisabeth (STE), and The Meath (TM) with different models of primary and specialist care involvement, in the United Kingdom Participants: 286 long-term residents (age range 19-91 years), 740 carers who had been in contact with the residents during the observation period between 16 March and 05 June 2020. Interventions: Early preventative and infection control measures with identification and isolation of symptomatic cases, with additional enhanced surveillance and isolation of asymptomatic residents and carers at one site (CCE) Main outcome measures: Infection rate for SARS-CoV-2 among residents and carers, asymptomatic rate and case fatality rate, if available. Results: During a 12-week observation period, we identified 29 people (13 residents) who were SARS-CoV-2 positive with confirmed outbreaks amongst residents in two long-term care facilities (CCE, STE). At CCE, two out of 98 residents were symptomatic and tested positive, one of whom died. A further seven individuals testing positive on weekly enhanced surveillance had a completely asymptomatic course. One asymptomatic carer tested positive after contact with confirmed COVID-19 patients in another institution. Since 30 April 2020, during on-site weekly enhanced surveillance all 275 caregivers tested repeatedly negative. At STE, three out of 146 residents were symptomatic and tested positive, a fourth tested positive during hospital admission for symptoms not related to COVID-19. Since April 6, 2020, 105/215 carers presenting with typical symptoms for COVID-19 were tested, of whom 15 tested positive. At TM, testing of symptomatic carers only started from early/mid-April, whilst on-site testing, even of symptomatic residents, was not available until recently. During the observation period, eight of 80 residents were symptomatic but none was tested. Twenty-six of 250 carers were symptomatic and were tested, of whom two tested positive. Conclusions: Infection outbreaks in long-term care facilities for vulnerable people with epilepsy can be quickly contained, but only if asymptomatic cases are identified through enhanced surveillance at individual and care staff level. We observed a low rate of morbidity and mortality which confirmed that preventative measures with isolation of suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19 can reduce resident-to-resident and reverse resident-to-carer transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 virus and antibodies in front-line Health Care Workers in an acute hospital in London: preliminary results from a longitudinal study (preprint)

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 infection in Healthcare Workers (HCWs) is a public health concern during the pandemic. Little description has been made of their antibody response over time in the presence or absence detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA and of symptoms. We followed a cohort of patient-facing HCWs at an acute hospital in London to measure seroconversion and RNA detection at the peak of the pandemic in London. Methods We enrolled 200 front-line HCWs between 26 March and 8 April 2020 and collected twice-weekly self-administered nose and throat swabs and monthly blood samples. Baseline and regular symptom data were also collected. Swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by polymerase chain reaction, and serum for IgM, IgA and IgG antibodies to the virus spike protein by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and flow cytometry. Findings We enrolled HCWs with a variety of roles who worked in areas where COVID-19 patients were admitted and cared for. During the first month of observation, 42/200 (21%) HCWs were PCR positive in at least one nose and throat swab. Only 8/42 HCW (19%) who were PCR positive during the study period had symptoms that met the current case definition. Of 181 HCWs who provided enrollment and follow-up blood samples, 82/181 (45.3%) were seropositive; 36/181 (19.9%) seroconverted during the study and 46/181 (25.4%) were seropositive at both time points. In 33 HCWs who had positive serology at baseline but were PCR negative, 32 remained PCR negative throughout follow-up. One HCW had a PCR positive swab six days after enrollment, likely representing a waning infection. Interpretation The extremely high seropositivity and RNA detection in this cohort of front-line HCWs who worked during the peak of the pandemic brings policies to protect staff and patients in the hospital environment into acute focus. Our findings have implications for planning for the expected second wave and for future vaccination roll out campaigns in similar settings. The further evidence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection indicates that asymptomatic surveillance of HCWs is essential while our study sets the foundations to answer pertinent questions around the duration of protective immune response and the risk of re-infection.